For nearly three weeks, Sri Lanka looked like a side struggling to find rhythm, answers, and confidence in Rawalpindi. But in a dramatic twist, they enter the tri-series final suddenly transformed — buoyant, fearless, and riding the momentum of two outstanding wins in must-win matches. Pakistan, meanwhile, have been the tournament’s most consistent and structured unit, yet Thursday’s defeat serves as a timely reminder that Sri Lanka cannot be taken lightly.

Saturday’s final brings Pakistan within reach of another home-season trophy, but also gives Sri Lanka a chance to rescue an otherwise turbulent tour. A month that promised disappointment now has the possibility of ending with silverware.

Sri Lanka’s Remarkable Turnaround: From Struggling Tourists to Title Contenders

Just a few days ago, Sri Lanka appeared destined for another forgettable overseas assignment. The ODI series ended 3–0 in Pakistan’s favour, and a heavy loss to Zimbabwe in the tri-series raised serious doubts about their intent and rhythm.

Then came the revival.

• A nine-wicket demolition of Zimbabwe.

• A thrilling three-run victory over Pakistan.

Together, these performances have reshaped the narrative of the tour.
Sri Lanka’s batting has tightened, their bowling is sharper, and their fielding more energetic. They now resemble a side peaking at precisely the right time — a dangerous prospect for Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Blueprint: Consistency, Structure and T20 Momentum

Pakistan’s biggest strength has been the clarity of their T20 identity. From the end of PSL 2025 to now, they have played 28 T20Is across nine opponents, winning more than two-thirds of their matches. The quality of opposition may vary, but results have been consistent — something Pakistan have long struggled to maintain like Bangladesh cricket timeline against India.

Their batting order is set, their bowling depth is extensive, and the allrounders are contributing regularly. Thursday’s defeat was Pakistan’s exception, not their norm.

A modest improvement in two areas —

• new-ball batting

• disciplined death bowling

— should make them strong favourites in the final.

Nawaz vs Chameera: The Game’s Defining Battle

Nawaz’s tournament has been exceptional.

• Highest strike rate (162.50)

• Joint-most wickets (7)

• Best economy (6.07) among bowlers who bowled ≥ 5 overs

Every game has featured a defining cameo — either with bat or ball. Pakistan’s late chase against Sri Lanka nearly succeeded because of him. His ability to shift roles between finisher, control bowler, and strike option makes him Pakistan’s most valuable T20 asset currently.

Dushmantha Chameera: Raw Pace, Precision, and New-Ball Destruction

Few fast bowlers have produced a spell this year more complete than Chameera’s 4 for 20:

• Three wickets in two overs inside the powerplay

• A perfect yorker-filled final over that conceded only three runs

His confidence is peaking at the ideal time for Sri Lanka.
If he reproduces even 70% of Thursday’s brilliance, Pakistan’s chase — or start — could be severely disrupted.

Pakistan’s Season Close to Perfect: The Final Stepping Stone

This tri-series final represents the near-conclusion of Pakistan’s longest and busiest T20 cycle ever. Designed specifically to prepare for the 2026 T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka, the schedule has tested:

• bench strength

• squad rotation

• adaptability to conditions

• consistency under pressure

A victory on Saturday would complete a highly successful calendar for Pakistan, validating the months of planning and experimentation.

Sri Lanka Eye a Soothing Finish After a Difficult Year

2025 has not been kind to Sri Lankan cricket:

• Home series loss to Bangladesh

• Inconsistency against Zimbabwe

• Asia Cup Super Fours exit

A tri-series win away from home would heal wounds, restore confidence, and energise the team ahead of co-hosting next year’s T20 World Cup. Their recent revival is not just about momentum — it’s about reassurance.

Form Guide: Sri Lanka Rising, Pakistan Mostly Steady

Pakistan: L W W W W
Sri Lanka: W W L L L

Pakistan enter with stronger consistency. Sri Lanka enter with stronger momentum.
Finals often reward the latter.

Team Spotlight: Selection Stability for Sri Lanka, Tactical Changes for Pakistan

Pakistan likely XI

Pakistan have rotated heavily throughout the series, but the final demands the strongest possible lineup.

Expected changes:

• Naseem Shah returns for new-ball fire

• Abrar Ahmed returns for middle-overs control

Probable XI:

1. Sahibzada Farhan

2. Saim Ayub

3. Babar Azam

4. Salman Ali Agha (c)

5. Fakhar Zaman

6. Usman Khan (wk)

7. Mohammad Nawaz

8. Faheem Ashraf

9. Mohammad Wasim

10. Salman Mirza

11. Abrar Ahmed

Sri Lanka’s XI: If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it

Having won twice with the same XI, Sri Lanka will not tamper with a winning formula.

Probable XI:

1. Pathum Nissanka

2. Kusal Mendis (wk)

3. Kamil Mishara

4. Kusal Perera

5. Janith Liyanage

6. Dasun Shanaka (c)

7. Pavan Ratnayake

8. Wanindu Hasaranga

9. Dushmantha Chameera

10. Maheesh Theekshana

11. Eshan Malinga

Rawalpindi’s conditions have remained consistently cold and dry. As usual, dew is expected to influence the second innings, which makes chasing a strong preference.
Expect a surface with pace early on but some skidding movement under lights.

Stats to Know Before the Final

• Fakhar Zaman averages 41 at a strike rate of ~152 in T20I finals.

• However, vs Sri Lanka in the 2022 Asia Cup final, he registered a golden duck.

• Sri Lanka last won a T20I tournament in 2022 — the Asia Cup.

• In their five T20I finals since 2014, Sri Lanka have won three.

Sri Lanka’s best chance lies in exploiting Pakistan’s only visible weakness — early wickets. Chameera’s pace and Theekshana’s accuracy could reduce Pakistan to 20/2 before Babar and Fakhar settle.

Conclusion

Abrar’s mystery spin has troubled Sri Lanka throughout the tour. How they handle overs 7–14 will decide whether they reach or defend a competitive total.

Salman’s composed leadership has been Pakistan’s steadying force. Shanaka, meanwhile, thrives in chaos — and Sri Lanka often respond to his fearless style.

If dew is heavy, spinners become less effective, and chases become easier.
Sri Lanka will prefer bowling first.
Pakistan will prefer runs on board but may also chase due to dew.

Pakistan enter with structure and consistency; Sri Lanka arrive with belief and fearlessness. The home side remains favourites, but Sri Lanka’s resurgence ensures a final that is anything but predictable.
With individual match-winners on both sides — Nawaz, Babar, Chameera, Hasaranga — Rawalpindi is set for a dramatic finale to a long, intense T20 season.